WEEKLY OF BUSINESS AVIATION - 1/24/05
HELICOPTER MARKET SHOWS FEW SIGNS OF GROWTH, FORECAST SAYS
The civil helicopter market offers little hope for overall growth despite a number of new models ready to enter service over the next several years, aerospace market analysis specialist Forecast International said last week. Forecast International, which completed its 10-year World Commercial Rotorcraft Market outlook, predicted a market for about 10,500 commercial rotary-wing aircraft valued at $20.25 billion between 2005 and 2014. Annual shipments, totaling 1,250 in 2004, will gradually ebb to about 1,000 annual deliveries in 2013.
Robinson Helicopter piston models are providing a boost to current deliveries, Forecast said. But in future years, turbine-powered aircraft will keep the market from shrinking as deliveries grow from 567 in 2004 to 615-620 per year between 2008 and 2010 and then fall to 580-590 by 2013, Forecast said.
Eurocopter will remain the dominant original equipment manufacturer in the market, "a trend expected to continue beyond the 10-year forecast period," said Forecast International Senior Aerospace Analyst Bill Dane. "The consortium is expected to account for about 30 percent of the revenues market, nearly twice the share of its closest competitor."
Forecast International also noted that Bell Helicopter's "long-awaited strategic plans" are coming together with plans to build a Modular Affordable Product Line of light singles and twins that seat between five and eight people. "Very few technical details have been disclosed," Forecast said, adding Bell hopes to have three new models in production by the end of the decade. Bell also hopes to secure FAA certification of its BA609 tiltrotor in late 2007.
Sikorsky, which recently bought Schweizer, in the near term appears as if it "was more motivated by the opportunities for entering the UAV and homeland security markets through the acquisition." But in the long term, Sikorsky can be expected to collaborate on derivatives of Schweizer's piston and turbine models, Forecast added.
Forecast also has been following the possibility that Taiwan's Aero Industry Development Corp. (AIDC) could take a stake in Enstrom Helicopter. "AIDC has reportedly identified Enstrom as a potential acquisition target and sees the production of light helicopters as a possible new business opportunity," Forecast said, but cautioned, "This is by no means a done deal, however, and many analysts question whether AIDC could raise the capital needed to purchase all or a substantial part of Enstrom."
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